Yorkville
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Penn National · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Penn National | Inoel Beato | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Penn National | Jomar Torres | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Penn National | Luis Ocasio | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | Fraser Aebly | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 01/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 07/10/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |