5
Capricorn Belle
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5
Penn National · Race 2 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | Jose Batista | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | Jose Batista | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | Julio Hernandez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | Julio Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Delaware Park | Angel Cruz | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Yarmouth | Marco Ghiani | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 29/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 250/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |