6
Party
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 6
Penn National · Race 2 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | Laurel Park | Forest Boyce | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Delaware Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Delaware Park | Kevin Gomez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Delaware Park | Sara Fabbro Del | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Delaware Park | Sara Fabbro Del | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Penn National | Sara Fabbro Del | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-4 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/12/2024 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 17/01/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 08/03/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |