1
Sandy Girl
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1
Penn National · Race 2 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Meadowlands | Dexter Haddock | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Penn National | Kleiner Mejias | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Penn National | Kleiner Mejias | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Penn National | Kleiner Mejias | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | Dexter Haddock | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | Ajhari Williams | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/10/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |