6
Miami Kaz
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 75
Penn National · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Penn National | Dexter Haddock | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Penn National | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | Dexter Haddock | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | Francisco Martinez | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | Julio Hernandez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Penn National | Julio Hernandez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 16/10/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |