3
Rar
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 73
Penn National · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Penn National | Jomar Torres | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Penn National | Jomar Torres | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | Carlos Lopez | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Penn National | Jomar Torres | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | Jomar Torres | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Charles Town | Jomar Torres | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 81/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |