1
Sunshine Johnny
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 81
Penn National · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | Penn National | Ricardo Chiappe | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Penn National | Ricardo Chiappe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Penn National | Ricardo Chiappe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-09 | Penn National | Ricardo Chiappe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Penn National | Maicol Inirio | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Penn National | Ricardo Chiappe | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 4-5 · tight 81/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 29/05/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 12/06/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 09/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |