IvyArcIvyArc
2

Mesopotamia

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 71

Penn National · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 24/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 12124/09C9C6 @ Delaware Park 09/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 66 · 5f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 66 par9/10C6OR 66projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09Delaware ParkAbner Adorno?8th5th+3
2026-09-24Delaware ParkJaime Rodriguez?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/099/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 2-2 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +17.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/20264th7/491%57%-0.34
09/10/20268th16/116%0%-0.16