New Jersey Fever

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 67

Penn National · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength10%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-15	Penn National	Dexter Haddock	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-10-23	Penn National	Wilfredo Corujo	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100

▲ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -120.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/10/2025	2nd	20/1	0%	86%	+0.86
15/10/2026	3rd	10/11	95%	60%	-0.35