Half A Deck
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Penn National · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Delaware Park | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | Martin Chuan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | Cipriano Gil | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | Martin Chuan | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 08/10/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |