3
Persian
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 79
Penn National · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | Andrew Wolfsont | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | Andrew Wolfsont | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Laurel Park | J G Torrealba | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | Victor Carrasco | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Laurel Park | J G Torrealba | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Laurel Park | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 12/10/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 03/11/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |