Tropical Rain Day
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 71
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-08 | Santa Anita | Antonio Fresu | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-17 | Santa Anita | Serafin Carmona | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Santa Anita | Serafin Carmona | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-01-04 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2024-11-16 | Del Mar | Armando Ayuso | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 02/09/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 13/10/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 16/11/2024 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/01/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/01/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 22/02/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 17/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |