3

Joint Venture

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 103

Santa Anita · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 108 · 1m Fas 125 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 108 par13/09C8OR 108C7 @ Del Mar 17/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 104 · 1m Fas 125 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 104 parC7 @ Santa Anita 15/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 109 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 109 par15/02C7OR 109C7 @ Santa Anita 07/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 107 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 107 parC7 @ Santa Anita 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 108 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 108 par3/04C7OR 108C7 @ Del Mar 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 125 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 105 parC8 @ Del Mar 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 107 · 1m 121 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 107 par23/08C8OR 107C7 @ Del Mar 08/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 108 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 108 parC8 @ Santa Anita 02/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 101 · 1m 124 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 101 par2/10C8OR 101projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Santa AnitaKyle Frey?2nd3rd−1
2026-09-08Del MarKyle Frey?6th6th0
2026-08-23Del MarJuan Hernandez?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-08Del MarJuan Hernandez?6th6th0
2026-04-03Santa AnitaJuan Hernandez?1st1st0
2026-03-07Santa AnitaWelfin Orantes?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/097/0323/082/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
17/11/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
15/02/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
07/03/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
03/04/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
08/08/20266th10/382%44%-0.38
23/08/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
08/09/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
02/10/20262nd5/493%80%-0.13