2
Mega Moon
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 107
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Edwin Maldonado | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Santa Anita | Hector Berrios | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Santa Anita | Welfin Orantes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 27/04/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |