Mighty Kai

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 102

Santa Anita · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

52%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▲1

Strength4%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: -1.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-02	Santa Anita	Tiago Pereira	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-23	Del Mar	Tiago Pereira	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-07-17	Del Mar	Tiago Pereira	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-07	Santa Anita	Tiago Pereira	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-05-02	Santa Anita	Tyler Baze	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-04-17	Santa Anita	Kazushi Kimura	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength57%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/02/2026	3rd	10/11	95%	60%	-0.35
14/03/2026	1st	3/1	84%	100%	+0.16
03/04/2026	2nd	20/1	0%	86%	+0.86
17/04/2026	1st	6/4	92%	100%	+0.08
02/05/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	50%	-0.37
07/06/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	86%	+0.12
17/07/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
23/08/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
02/10/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18