Cardiff Crack
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 105
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Del Mar | Tiago Pereira | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | Tiago Pereira | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 28/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |