3
Geezer
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 104
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Anita | Edgar Payeras | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Edgar Payeras | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Edgar Payeras | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Del Mar | A Fresu | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | Cesar Belmont | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Santa Anita | Cesar Belmont | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 12/10/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |