5
Miss Jo's Curlin
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 100
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Del Mar | Drayden Dyke Van | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-06-16 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 17/03/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 12/05/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 28/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |