5
Ahrens
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 106
Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |