4

Captivator

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 108

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Santa Anita 10/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f110y Fas 12210/10C7C7 @ Del Mar 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 96 par8/11C7OR 96C0 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 14/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 99 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 99 par14/12C?OR 99C6 @ Santa Anita 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 98 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 98 par6/06C6OR 98C6 @ Del Mar 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 107 · 6f 118 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 107 par31/07C6OR 107projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Del MarEmisael Jaramillo?1st1st0
2026-06-06Santa AnitaEmisael Jaramillo?1st1st0
2025-12-14Los Alamitos RacecourseHector Berrios?6th0th+5
2025-11-08Del MarHector Berrios?1st2nd−1
2025-10-10Santa AnitaHector Berrios?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/108/1114/126/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
08/11/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
14/12/20256th12/137%0%-0.37
06/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
31/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37