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Gun Runner Charlie

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 99

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 23/02/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark23/02/2025 · OR 90 par23/02C6OR 90C7 @ Turf Paradise 16/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 118 · beat its mark16/04/2025 · OR 90 parC6 @ Santa Anita 13/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 90 par13/06C6OR 90C7 @ Del Mar 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 95 parC7 @ Oaklawn Park 12/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 1m 122 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 99 par12/12C7OR 99C5 @ Oaklawn Park 03/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 100 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 16/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 107 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 107 par16/02C5OR 107C6 @ Oaklawn Park 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 99 · 1m1f Slo 124 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 99 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 104 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 104 par9/04C6OR 104projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-09Oaklawn ParkRamon Vazquez?7th7th0
2026-03-08Oaklawn ParkRamon Vazquez?2nd2nd0
2026-02-16Oaklawn ParkRamon Vazquez?1st0th+1
2026-01-03Oaklawn ParkRamon Vazquez?3rd2nd+1
2025-12-12Oaklawn ParkLuis Saez?3rd4th−1
2025-11-07Del MarAntonio Fresu?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/027/1116/029/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength2%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20259th33/10%11%+0.11
16/04/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
13/06/20257th40/10%33%+0.33
07/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
12/12/20253rd11/893%78%-0.15
03/01/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
16/02/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/03/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
09/04/20267th7/491%0%-0.91