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2

Chapter One

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 80

Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 18/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 74 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 74 par18/01C6OR 74C6 @ Santa Anita 15/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 85 parC6 @ Santa Anita 15/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 90 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 90 par15/03C6OR 90C9 @ Santa Anita 01/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 94 · 6f110y Fm 120 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 94 parC9 @ Santa Anita 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 89 par17/05C9OR 89C9 @ Santa Anita 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 5f110y Fas 121 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Del Mar 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 86 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 86 par20/07C7OR 86C8 @ Del Mar 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 parC8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 90 par11/09C8OR 90projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Los Alamitos RacecourseEmisael Jaramillo?4th5th−1
2026-08-08Del MarEmisael Jaramillo?2nd3rd−1
2026-07-20Del MarEmisael Jaramillo?8th8th0
2026-06-15Santa AnitaEmisael Jaramillo?1st3rd−2
2026-05-17Santa AnitaEmisael Jaramillo?7th9th−2
2026-05-01Santa AnitaEmisael Jaramillo?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/011/0520/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 7-8 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/01/20264th7/163%70%+0.07
15/02/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
15/03/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
01/05/20266th11/271%44%-0.27
17/05/20267th7/163%0%-0.63
15/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
20/07/20268th8/158%13%-0.45
08/08/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
11/09/20264th3/184%57%-0.27