Henry Adams
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 7 · OR 103
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Santa Anita | Tyler Baze | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Del Mar | Tiago Pereira | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Del Mar | Tyler Baze | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2024 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 12/10/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 31/08/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |