Jalisco
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 79
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Cristobal Herrera | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Del Mar | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Del Mar | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Santa Anita | Abel Lezcano | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Abel Lezcano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Del Mar | Abel Lezcano | ? | 8th | 1st | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |