1

Prime Artist

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 104

Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 13318/09C8C6 @ Del Mar 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Santa Anita 26/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 97 · 1m1f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/01/2026 · OR 97 par26/01C6OR 97C9 @ Santa Anita 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 99 parC9 @ Santa Anita 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 101 par27/03C9OR 101C7 @ Santa Anita 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 103 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 103 parC7 @ Santa Anita 07/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 103 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 103 par7/06C7OR 103C7 @ Del Mar 06/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 104 · 5f Fm 119 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 104 parC7 @ Santa Anita 02/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 103 · 6f 122 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 103 par2/10C7OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Santa AnitaRicardo Gonzalez?2nd2nd0
2026-09-06Del MarRicardo Gonzalez?1st1st0
2026-06-07Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?4th4th0
2026-04-25Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?3rd3rd0
2026-03-27Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?1st3rd−2
2026-02-28Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0928/027/062/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20256th7/282%67%-0.15
30/10/20256th15/261%29%-0.32
26/01/20264th16/116%63%+0.47
28/02/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
27/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
25/04/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
07/06/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
06/09/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
02/10/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12