8
Proof He Goes
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 102
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Santa Anita | Drayden Dyke Van | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Del Mar | Francisco Monroy | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Del Mar | Francisco Monroy | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Santa Anita | Francisco Monroy | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |