Throwthefirstpunch
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 87
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Anita | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-07 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 12/10/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |