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5

Triple Diamonds

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 83

Santa Anita · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Sunland Park 12/04/2015 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 0m4f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS12/04C6C6 @ Del Mar 15/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Santa Anita 19/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 99 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/01/2025 · OR 99 par19/01C6OR 99C5 @ Santa Anita 17/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 100 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/02/2025 · OR 100 parC5 @ Santa Anita 05/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 95 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 95 par5/04C5OR 95C6 @ Santa Anita 04/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/05/2025 · OR 85 parC6 @ Santa Anita 01/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2025 · OR 81 par1/06C6OR 81C6 @ Del Mar 09/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 5f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 75 par9/08C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2025-08-09Del MarUmberto Rispoli?4th3rd+1
2025-06-01Santa AnitaKazushi Kimura?2nd1st+1
2025-05-04Santa AnitaAntonio Fresu?8th7th+1
2025-04-05Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?6th4th+2
2025-02-17Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?5th3rd+2
2025-01-19Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0417/021/069/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength2%

Delivery trend -10.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20151st19/250%100%+0.50
15/11/20241st15/261%100%+0.39
19/01/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
17/02/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
05/04/20256th9/153%17%-0.36
04/05/20258th9/153%0%-0.53
01/06/20252nd7/282%83%+0.02
09/08/20254th4/179%50%-0.29