9

Main Impact

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 79

Santa Anita · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

51%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS29/08C6C6 @ Del Mar 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 71 par7/09C6OR 71C6 @ Santa Anita 19/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/10/2026 · OR 80 par19/10C6OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19Santa AnitaAdrian Escobedo?9th6th+3
2026-09-07Del MarAdrian Escobedo?4th1st+3
2026-08-29Del MarAdrian Escobedo?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/087/0919/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20266th16/116%44%+0.29
07/09/20264th33/10%67%+0.67
19/10/20269th20/10%11%+0.11