2

Imaboutago

5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 103

Santa Anita · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Santa Anita 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f110y Fm 12225/10C?C6 @ Santa Anita 08/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 102 · 6f Fm 124 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 102 parC6 @ Santa Anita 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 6f110y 124 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 101 par6/02C6OR 101C5 @ Santa Anita 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 103 · 6f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 103 parC6 @ Santa Anita 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 102 · 6f Fm 124 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 102 par28/03C6OR 102C6 @ Santa Anita 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 103 · 6f Fm 126 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 103 parC6 @ Santa Anita 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 101 · 6f Fm 126 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 101 par14/06C6OR 101C0 @ Del Mar 26/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f Fm 118C6 @ Santa Anita 02/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 101 · 6f 125 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 101 par2/10C6OR 101projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Santa AnitaJoel Rosario?5th5th0
2026-07-26Del MarArmando Ayuso?8th8th0
2026-06-14Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?4th4th0
2026-05-16Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?6th6th0
2026-03-28Santa AnitaMirco Demuro?2nd2nd0
2026-02-21Santa AnitaArmando Ayuso?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1021/0214/062/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20254th4/179%40%-0.39
08/01/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
06/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
21/02/20267th16/116%25%+0.09
28/03/20262nd3/184%86%+0.02
16/05/20266th2/189%29%-0.61
14/06/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
26/07/20268th20/10%0%0.00
02/10/20265th11/271%0%-0.71