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Cara Rose

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 71

Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 02/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 1192/05C6C6 @ Santa Anita 30/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 95 · 5f Fm 119 · below its mark30/05/2025 · OR 95 par30/05C6OR 95C6 @ Del Mar 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 87 · 5f Fas 122 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 87 par19/07C6OR 87C6 @ Del Mar 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 5f Fm 122 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 85 par21/08C6OR 85C5 @ Del Mar 06/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 82 par6/09C5OR 82C6 @ Santa Anita 03/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 72 par3/10C6OR 72C5 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 69 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 69 par31/10C5OR 69projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2025-10-31Del MarLuis Saez?6th5th+1
2025-10-03Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?3rd3rd0
2025-09-06Del MarMirco Demuro?11th10th+1
2025-08-21Del MarAntonio Fresu?1st2nd−1
2025-07-19Del MarAntonio Fresu?2nd3rd−1
2025-05-30Santa AnitaWilliam Iii Antongeorgi?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0521/0831/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
30/05/20253rd10/382%60%-0.22
19/07/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
21/08/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
06/09/202511th40/10%0%0.00
03/10/20253rd9/153%60%+0.07
31/10/20256th25/10%50%+0.50