10
Christa Mcauliffe
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 10 · OR 89
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Santa Anita | Manuel Americano | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Del Mar | A Fresu | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 02/10/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |
| 18/10/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |