15
L'avenir
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Toulouse · Prix Face Time Bourbon - Monte · 1m 6f 146y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Marseille-borely | S Laloum | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | Mme L Navarro | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | S Laloum | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | S Laloum | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Vincennes | N Bazire | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marseille-borely | N Mortagne | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 06/05/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |