13
Love Me De Cerisy
5yo Gelding · 10-1
Toulouse · Prix Face Time Bourbon - Monte · 1m 6f 146y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Cavaillon | Mlle S Cortial | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Divonne Les Bains | M Laffay | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Saint Galmier | Mlle S Cortial | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Vichy | A Rozzoni | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nancy | Mme T Mathias-maisonnette | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Vichy | A Rozzoni | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength95%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 30/06/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |