6
Lugos De Montauran
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Toulouse · Prix Face Time Bourbon - Monte · 1m 6f 146y
#6
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Toulouse | B Chauve-laffay | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | G Lenain | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Le Mans | G Lenain | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Vincennes | G Lenain | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | N R Brossard | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-04 | Laval | G Lenain | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 5-15 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 26/11/2024 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 15/12/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 65% | +0.59 |
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 42% | -0.29 |