5

Ilton Du Bray

8yo Gelding · 0-0 · Draw 5

Toulouse · Prix Jean Et Robert Bordenave - Attele · 1m 5f 147y

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Graignes 13/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 013/02C?C0 @ Laval 30/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 1m6f36y Std 0C0 @ Laval 06/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m6f36y Std 06/07C?C0 @ Pornichet 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 0C0 @ Pornichet 25/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m5f38y Std 025/08C?C0 @ Vincennes 09/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 0C0 @ Enghien 27/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 027/09C?7 @ Laval 26/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 1m6f36y Std 04 @ Toulouse 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 0 · HIGHER CLASS18/094projClass-projected finish: 10th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18ToulouseF Jeanneau46th4th+2
2026-02-26LavalTh Rebuffe76th7th−1
2025-09-27EnghienM Beauvais?11th11th0
2025-09-09VincennesTh Rebuffe?9th9th0
2025-08-25PornichetT Ouvrie?7th7th0
2025-08-14PornichetCl Frecelle?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0214/0827/0918/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/20252nd6/168%92%+0.23
30/04/202510th80/10%40%+0.40
06/07/202510th22/10%18%+0.18
14/08/20253rd25/10%86%+0.86
25/08/20257th16/116%54%+0.38
09/09/20259th14/126%38%+0.12
27/09/202511th40/10%33%+0.33
26/02/20266th40/10%64%+0.64
18/09/20266th66/10%67%+0.67