15
Lukya Choisie
5yo Filly · 0-0 · Draw 15
Toulouse · Prix Jean-pierre Sie - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#3
Rank
Odds
125/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Vichy | M Grasset | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Toulouse | Y Vidal | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-01-30 | Toulouse | M Grasset | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | Mme L Regnier | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | M Grasset | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | M Yvon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 9-16 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/11/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 08/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |