3
Lord Thomas
5yo Gelding · 0-0 · Draw 3
Toulouse · Prix Victor Bermes - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#8
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Vincennes | D Thomain | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Laval | M Abrivard | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | M Abrivard | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mauquenchy | C Parys | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mauquenchy | Ch Cuiller | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Cordemais | A Jannier | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 16/03/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 25/09/2026 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |