16
Lorfevre Du Vinois
5yo Gelding · 0-0 · Draw 16
Toulouse · Prix Victor Bermes - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 7
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Toulouse | Mme Lana Henry | 7 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-05-17 | Caen | Y Lebourgeois | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Caen | M Coignard | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-04-14 | Argentan | M Coignard | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-09-09 | Caen | Y Lebourgeois | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/04/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 26/04/2025 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |