1
Major De Choc
4yo Gelding · 0-0 · Draw 1
Toulouse · Prix Jonny Ruffato - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#6
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Pornichet | A Collette | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Caen | A Collette | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Angers | A Pereira | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Chartres | E Cive | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Enghien | M Mottier | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-02 | Cabourg | M Mottier | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 13-16 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 29/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 89% | +0.34 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |