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13

Mister Johns

4yo Gelding · 0-0 · Draw 13

Toulouse · Prix Jonny Ruffato - Attele · 1m 5f 147y

#1

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 07/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 07/07C?5 @ Toulouse 07/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m5f147y Std 07/0256 @ Agen 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m5f10y Std 02/046C0 @ Vichy 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 1m5f202y Std 010/06C?6 @ Agen 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 1m4f176y Std 020/066projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-20AgenM Grasset63rd4th−1
2026-06-10VichyM Grasset?4th4th0
2026-04-02AgenM Grasset61st2nd−1
2026-02-07ToulousePierrick Le Moel55th5th0
2025-07-07Cagnes-sur-MerS Stefano?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/077/022/0410/0620/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 5-16 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
07/02/20265th50/10%64%+0.64
02/04/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
10/06/20264th11/271%79%+0.08
20/06/20263rd10/147%87%+0.39