4
Nuvola Baraka
3yo Filly · 0-0 · Draw 4
Toulouse · Prix Jean Diebold - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#4
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Toulouse | P Geray | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | P Geray | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | P Geray | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-02 | Agen | P Geray | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +14.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |