3

Hold The Serve

6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 130

Uttoxeter · Kalahari King 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/6

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful sole start in points and on the up over hurdles last season, completing a hat-trick at Kempton (21f) in February. Given a sympathetic chasing debut after 6 months off (had another breathing operation) when promising second of 4 in novice at Perth (2m, soft) 15 days ago. Leading player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Cheltenham 16/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m87y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS16/1124 @ Wincanton 16/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 2m3f179y Sft 15416/1244 @ Market Rasen 16/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m2f140y Goo 16616/0143 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 123 · 2m5f Goo 151 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 123 par21/023OR 1231 @ Aintree 11/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 130 · 3m149y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 130 par11/041OR 1303 @ Perth 15/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 130 · 2m Sft 159 · below its mark15/10/2026 · OR 130 par15/103OR 130projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15PerthS Bowen32nd2nd0
2026-04-11AintreeS Bowen15th3rd+2
2026-02-21KemptonS Bowen31st1st0
2026-01-16Market RasenLewis Saunders41st2nd−1
2025-12-16WincantonS Bowen41st2nd−1
2025-11-16CheltenhamS Bowen211th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1116/1216/0121/0211/0415/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 71/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 3. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/202511th13/891%23%-0.68
16/12/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
16/01/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
21/02/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
11/04/20265th10/382%81%-0.02
15/10/20262nd9/276%67%-0.10