10
At Mangan Bridge
8yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 108
Uttoxeter · Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-17 | Fakenham | Charlie Hammond | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Southwell | Charlie Hammond | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-09 | Southwell | Harry Reed | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Uttoxeter | Harry Reed | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 7-14 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |