4
Fine Thing
5yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 113
Uttoxeter · Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Kelso | Harry Atkins | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Newton Abbot | Harry Skelton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Stratford | Harry Skelton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Uttoxeter | Harry Skelton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Market Rasen | Harry Skelton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 15-15 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 04/10/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |