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3

Loustic Du Chatel

5yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 114

Uttoxeter · Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y

#7

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Debut bumper winner. More settled in a hood when doubling his tally on fourth go in this sphere in 10-runner novice hurdle at Kempton (2m, good) in March. Sent up in trip for return/handicap debut and very much one to consider with yard going well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m7f157y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS1/1123 @ Newbury 17/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS17/1234 @ Huntingdon 22/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 1m7f171y Sft 16222/0144 @ Wincanton 25/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR - · 1m7f50y Goo 16125/0244 @ Kempton 23/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 112 · 2m Gd 160 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 112 par23/034OR 112projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-23KemptonThomas Bellamy41st1st0
2026-02-25WincantonBrendan Powell46th6th0
2026-01-22HuntingdonBrendan Powell42nd2nd0
2025-12-17NewburyBrendan Powell37th6th+1
2025-11-01AscotBrendan Powell21st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1117/1222/0125/0223/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 44/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength94%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
17/12/20257th11/271%50%-0.21
22/01/20262nd40/10%93%+0.93
25/02/20266th4/179%71%-0.08
23/03/20261st13/891%100%+0.09