Pike Road
7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 106
Uttoxeter · Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#14
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Uttoxeter | Freddie Keighley | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Uttoxeter | Freddie Keighley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | Freddie Keighley | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | Freddie Keighley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | Freddie Keighley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Hereford | Freddie Keighley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 02/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 15/09/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 04/10/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |