Springs A Girl
7yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 113
Uttoxeter · Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Ludlow | Harry Atkins | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-15 | Chepstow | Freddie Keighley | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Newbury | Freddie Keighley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Kempton | S Bowen | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Cheltenham | S Bowen | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2025-09-15 | Worcester | S Bowen | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2024 | 1st | 80/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/11/2024 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/12/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/02/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 16/03/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 24/11/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |