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11

Dance Rules

7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 78

Uttoxeter · Ted Anderson Dixon Handicap Chase · 2m 4f

#10

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up sole point start. Showed first form when well-backed second under Sean Bowen on handicap hurdle bow/return at Leicester (2½m, heavy) in December. Only 1 lb higher for his chasing debut but has been off for a further 10 months since (undergone a breathing operation in the interim).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength40%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Uttoxeter 09/07/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS9/0744 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS26/0744 @ Newton Abbot 31/08/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS31/0845 @ Leicester 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 2m4f110y Hvy 149 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 77 par10/125OR 77projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2025-12-10LeicesterS Bowen52nd2nd0
2024-08-31Newton AbbotDavid Noonan48th7th+1
2024-07-26UttoxeterAlan Johns49th8th+1
2024-07-09UttoxeterAlan Johns46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0726/0731/0810/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -16.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20246th33/10%38%+0.38
26/07/20249th66/10%27%+0.27
31/08/20248th150/10%22%+0.22
10/12/20252nd13/891%75%-0.16