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Kingston Gent

6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 95

Uttoxeter · Ted Anderson Dixon Handicap Chase · 2m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced winner in points. Matched the pick of his hurdle form when 3½-length third on chasing debut at Leicester in December (23f). Still early days in this discipline and weighted to go well on return from 10 months away.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ffos Las 10/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m4f GS 157 · HIGHER CLASS10/1144 @ Wincanton 17/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 2m3f179y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Taunton 08/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 2m3f1y Sft 159 · HIGHER CLASS8/0145 @ Exeter 21/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 103 · 2m5f137y Hvy 166 · below its mark21/02/2025 · OR 103 par4 @ Fontwell 25/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 101 · 2m5f164y Goo 150 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 101 par25/044OR 1014 @ Chepstow 10/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 103 · 2m3f100y Gd 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 103 par5 @ Ffos Las 28/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 102 · 2m4f Sft 165 · below its mark28/10/2025 · OR 102 par28/105OR 1024 @ Exeter 17/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 2m7f25y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 100 par5 @ Leicester 10/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 2m6f151y Goo 168 · below its mark10/12/2025 · OR 99 par10/125OR 99projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2025-12-10LeicesterJonjo O'Neill Jr.53rd3rd0
2025-11-17ExeterFreddie Keighley46th5th+1
2025-10-28Ffos LasSean Houlihan59th9th0
2025-10-10ChepstowSean Houlihan49th8th+1
2025-04-25FontwellSean Houlihan42nd1st+1
2025-02-21ExeterSean Houlihan55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1121/0228/1010/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -12.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20249th50/10%43%+0.43
17/12/20243rd18/15%83%+0.78
08/01/20255th25/10%67%+0.67
21/02/20255th11/271%69%-0.02
25/04/20252nd8/158%89%+0.31
10/10/20259th11/142%47%+0.05
28/10/20259th5/287%33%-0.54
17/11/20256th3/184%38%-0.47
10/12/20253rd11/271%75%+0.04